It’s my favorite time of year: election time. This Tuesday, several important elections will be happening across the country, ones I’ve been keeping an eye on, including gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, the New York mayoral election, and a ballot measure in California that would redraw the state’s congressional maps to allow Democrats to pick up five more seats. Although these contests aren’t as big as the midterms or the presidential elections, there’s value in tracking off-year elections because they can reveal where the country stands politically.

Disclaimer: These won’t be as in-depth or data-driven as my 2024 election predictions. I’ll give rough estimates for what I think the final results will be, but this post will include more of my own opinion than what I’d normally put in a midterm or presidential prediction. I’ll go in order of how much I care about each of these elections. I’ve been meaning to write a politics-centered post for a while, so this is what it will be.

Election #1: California Proposition 50

I’ve gotten to the point in politics where not much gets under my skin. Everything Trump says, I just tune out, no matter how crazy it is. Same with everything on social media, as it’s mostly just garbage and misinformation. Eventually, you learn that saving your breath and working on things you can actually change matters more than getting angry about a policy you can’t control. It’s just not worth it, in my opinion.

That being said, this ballot measure pisses me off.

If you don’t know what California Proposition 50 is, it’s a ballot measure that would override the congressional maps California enacted in 2021. Every state redraws its maps every ten years. California, like a few other states, has an independent commission that draws the maps to avoid partisan influence. The goal is to produce fair maps that represent like-minded communities.

Right now, there are 43 Democrats and 9 Republicans in California’s congressional delegation. That might not seem fair, but the current map is only slightly biased toward Democrats because Republican voters are spread out, making it hard to draw competitive districts. Governor Newsom and California Democrats now want to override that commission and change the lines to guarantee 48 Democrats and only 4 Republicans. If that doesn’t sound fair, it’s because it isn’t.

This is largely in response to Texas doing the same thing earlier this year. In August, Texas (at Trump’s request) redrew its map to push out five Democrats, making it likely that the next Texas delegation will have 32 Republicans and only 7 Democrats. As someone writing a law review note about gerrymandering, I’m not at all happy about it.

I get why Democrats are responding in kind. Trump wants to rig enough maps to make it impossible for Democrats to retake the House. And since Congress has accomplished little over the last ten months besides passing an unpopular megabill, Democrats don’t want to sit idly by. But I have two main gripes with their argument:

1. Saving Democracy

Voting rights are one of my highest priorities as a voter. They rank above immigration and foreign policy for me, personally. It’s an issue that matters more to me. It may not be your priority and that’s fair, but it’s an issue I care a lot about. Protecting and expanding the right to vote and ensuring fair representation are two things I’m specifically invested in. This proposition just doesn’t do that. It reduces competition, locks in partisan advantages, and silences millions of voters. If the goal is to win more seats, fine. Just don’t claim it’s about “saving democracy” while rigging your own system. That’s a false equivalence. Call it what it is: you want more seats in Congress. Own it.

2. Newsom’s 2028 Campaign

This is clearly part of Gavin Newsom’s effort to boost his national profile ahead of a likely 2028 campaign. The ballot measure puts him back in the spotlight, which he needs. He’s not particularly popular and his second-term relevance has faded. Picking a national fight with Trump is a good way to energize Democrats and it’s working. Still, if this were happening in Newsom’s first term or during Biden’s presidency, this A) wouldn’t have happened or B) wouldn’t have been such a spectacle.

In the end, this measure will probably pass. Democrats have framed it as a partisan issue, and they’re more energized about it than Republicans. Given their advantage in the state, I’d guess it passes roughly 57–43%. If I were a California voter, I wouldn’t vote for it on principle. Republicans in California deserve fairer treatment, even if I don’t agree with them politically. This measure does not do that.

Election #2: New York City Mayoral Election

Seriously, why Cuomo?

Zohran Mamdani is going to win, probably by about eight points. Polls show him up slightly more, but I think Cuomo will close the gap a little. If you’re wondering how a Muslim democratic socialist could become New York City’s next mayor, there are two simple reasons:

#1: Mamdani’s Excellent Campaign

Mamdani has run one of the best campaigns I’ve ever seen. Even from afar, everything I’ve seen is positive. He’s young, upbeat, and energetic. His social media actually engages with voters. He answers questions directly and comes off as genuine and caring. When small controversies have come up, he’s been transparent and quick to respond, which is such a rarity in politics. His policy proposals are ambitious, and while he likely can’t enact all of them, he’s made the campaign feel fresh and hopeful rather than reactive or anti-Trump. It’s not a “lesser of two evils” race; it feels like an effort to try something new.

#2: Andrew Cuomo

I try to forget it, but COVID was the worst time in my life. Cuomo initially stood out as a bright spot in all of this with his daily press conferences. He was calm, poised, and reassuring. But his fall from grace changed everything. Why would someone resign in disgrace and then try to make a comeback for a position he doesn’t seem to want? His campaign reflects that lack of energy. Most of his support is just anti-Mamdani voters. He’s dull, uninspired, and weighed down by baggage. I also doubt he’d cooperate well with Governor Hochul, given their history. And, let’s not even begin to mention the fact that he’s had over a dozen women claim he sexually harassed them. Even for a politician, the dude’s slimy.

So, for those reasons, I’m pretty confident Mamdani will be New York City’s next mayor.

Elections #3 & #4: Virginia and New Jersey Governor Races

Both of these elections are fairly straightforward.

In Virginia, Republican Glenn Youngkin can’t run again. Democrat Abigail Spanberger faces Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. Virginia is a pretty blue state (not solidly though, yet) and Earle-Sears hasn’t energized the base. Spanberger will likely win by about 13 points. Polls show her up by 10, but with the federal shutdown hurting many Virginia workers, I think she gets a slight boost. My concern is that national Democrats will overinterpret this win as a sign of a coming “blue wave,” which would be misplaced. This really is just a blue state electing a mainstream Democrat against an underwhelming Republican candidate.

New Jersey is closer. I think Democrat Mikie Sherrill wins by around 3.5 points. New Jersey has been surprisingly competitive lately, as Harris only carried it by five points last year, and in 2021, Phil Murphy barely won reelection by two. This time, Sherrill’s campaign has been overly focused on Trump, which doesn’t inspire new voters. I, for one, am getting real sick of the whole “Stop Trump” campaign. I get it, the things he’s doing are harmful to a big group of people. And that message resonates to some extent. But at some point, you need to talk about improving people’s lives, not just opposing the other side. And I have yet to see where Sherrill has done that.

Final Thoughts: Democrats Will Overread These Wins Heading Into 2026

My gut says Democrats are headed for what Republicans went through from 2012–2016. After Obama’s reelection, Republicans tried to moderate and court the middle. Then Trump came along and completely reshaped the party into a quixotic blend of populist-nationalism. Even if you don’t agree with it, he’s won two different elections and won the popular vote last year by expanding his base and improving his performance with Black & Latino voters. Democrats may face a similar reckoning soon.

Even with Trump back in the White House (who is pretty unpopular), Democrats just aren’t capitalizing. Voters see the party as either too “woke” or too weak. The establishment keeps nominating safe, establishment-style candidates, and people are tired of it. With young voters increasingly disillusioned, it’ll only take one more major economic crisis for progressives and younger Democrats to revolt against party leadership in a way that brings real change. There’s already been a lot of discontent since Trump 1. Electing Biden was kind of the interlude, but as we all know, that didn’t end well and has caused even more discontent with the Democratic Establishment.

I can’t prove any that. For now, that intuition is just a feeling. But politics often turns on instincts before the data catches up. And that’s what I feel like is coming.

-Colby